Assassinations resumed

Today's assassination attempt of an interior ministry official, and the killing of 4 of his escorts, catapulted the Hariri investigation back into the limelight.

The Rmeileh bomb blast nearly killed Lieutenant-Colonel Samir Shehadeh, who holds a senior post in the Interior Ministry's intelligence branch and has played a leading role in Lebanon's investigation into the Hariri assassination.

According to Elaph, Shehadeh is the one who led the arrests of the four pro-Syrian generals implicated in the Hariri assassination.

Serge Brammertz is nearly done, and is expected to submit another report on September 30. A senior UN official is also expected in Beirut to sign a treaty with the government regarding the formation of the tribunal (which still awaits amendments to the Lebanese penal code—delayed by Berri's sit-in).

Acting interior minister Ahmad Fatfat said the assassination could be a "double-message" to the Interior Security Forces and the Lebanese army. According to Fatfat, the ministry's intelligence branch has also been playing an important role in the Lebanese army deployment in the south.

The Lebanese MPs looked sleepy and lethargic in their sit-in today. Berri even stood up and said the assassination was a "stab in the heart of the sit-in against the continuation of Israeli aggression."

Wael Abu Faour wondered whether it was a "coincidence" that Shehadeh happened to play a key role in the Hariri investigation, and that the attempt happened days before the Brammertz report, and hours before the arrival of a UN official to sign a treaty regarding the setting up of an international tribunal.

Hizbullah MP Mohammad Raad said the incident should be investigated and "should motivate us to be united. "

Speaking to reporters after the sit-in, Saad Hariri said Lebanese security is "target". "We reject this message, We hold the coward terrorists responsible," he said. When asked about whether this was intended to harm the tribunal, Hariri said, "Nobody can harm the international tribunal, there is national consensus on this that we arrived at during the National Dialogue."

Oh really?

Comments

[fubar]

Saad says, "We hold the coward terrorists responsible."

Gee, Saad, what terrorists would those be? Do they have a name?

And speaking of cowards, when are you going to start acting like half the man your father was?

Saad, repeat after me, "my only regret is that I have but one life to give for my country."

Oh, nevermind, go back to Jiddah.

[e]

Fubar,
How about: "Saad, get a life so you can give it to your country."
e

[Ghassan Karam]

Trouble was expected and as usual Damascus was very prompt id its delivery. They never disappoint.

As for Saad , he has overstayed his welcome. It sure is time to end this gig. In a democracy leadership is not inherited. And Sa'ad please on your way out maybe be you can convince Siniora to either start taking steroids or to accompany you on a lengthy vacation.

[Vox P.]

It was to be expected that the Syrians would try to kill the investigation. They feel empowered since the end of the HA-Israel conflict. The next weeks are going to be very important (like always in Lebanon :)

[fubar]

BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) -
Israeli forces left five villages in southern Lebanon and were replaced Tuesday by Lebanese troops, who also moved into the center of a Hezbollah stronghold [Bint Jbail] devastated by weeks of fighting, witnesses and the U.N. peacekeeping mission said.
U.N. peacekeepers patrolled the area and set up new checkpoints before Lebanese forces took over. A beefed-up U.N. force is preparing to expand from 2,000 to 15,000 troops and deploy throughout the south with an equal number of Lebanese soldiers as Israeli forces withdraw.
. . .
Israeli troops withdrew from the villages of Beit Lif, al-Qawzah, Dibel, Ein Ibel and Mhaibeb, all in the southeast corner of Lebanon near the larger town of Bint Jbail, according to a statement by the UNIFIL mission.
The mission's Ghanaian Battalion set up seven checkpoints and patrolled the area intensively, confirming that Israeli forces had left, the statement said. About 250 Lebanese soldiers then moved into the area, witnesses and Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported.
Lebanese soldiers who had been manning checkpoints on the outskirts of Bint Jbail moved for the first time into the town's center. The National News Agency said 120 soldiers arrived on armored personnel carriers, trucks and jeeps. Bint Jbail was the scene of fierce ground fighting between Israeli forces and Hezbollah guerrillas and large parts of the town are in ruins.
Lebanese troops also deployed in the nearby villages of Ainata and Aitaroun.
. . .
UNIFIL spokesman Alexander Ivanko declined to say how much territory in Lebanon is still controlled by Israeli forces.

******
UNIFIL declines to give out specific Israeli positions and to say how much territory Israel still controls. Damn, now that’s a first. BTW, anyone else notice that UNIFIL’s daily (Monday thru Friday) press releases stopped on Sept. 1. None yesterday, none today. Hmmm....now that the Italians have arrived, UNIFIL security is maybe a little more important than diming out the Israeli positions.

[bad vilbel]

Indeed. We're back to pre July-12 status, as far as Lebanese internal politics are concerned. It's as if nothing changed. If I wasn't already sickened by it all a long time ago, I'd be sickened now.

In other news, anybody else find it somewhat interesting that the Lebanese Army and IDF officers have no problems meeting in Naqoura, shaking hands and working well together (this all according to LBC news) but that the media is not allowed to show pictures of that cooperation? And when some Lebanese officer shares a cup of tea with the IDF, he gets arrested?

[fubar]

Italian Defense Minister Arturo Parisi said Tuesday that the failure of an international mission in Lebanon would be a "grave blow" to the United Nations.

"The failure of the mission would represent a grave blow to the path Italy has bet on. We have bet on the United Nations," Parisi told reporters. (AP)

********

Well, the odds on that bet aren't good.

But if you're going to gamble, go big (2,000 to 3,000 boots & don't even look over the horizon to see the Garibaldi jockeying for position amongst the numerous other warships).

BTW, how comforting is that? Italy is already talking about the real possibility of failure before the mission has really even begun. Well, at least they can't say later that they didn't know the score.

[Lazarus]

"the Lebanese Army and IDF officers have no problems meeting in Naqoura"

Bad Vilbel: context is everything.

[bad vilbel]

Lazarus, you're missing my point.
It's not so much the meeting that's the news, in my opinion, but the fact that cameras are not allowed to show Israeli officers and Lebanese officers cooperating.

Let's put it this way. the IDF and the LAF have indirectly cooperated (through UNIFIL) for years, prior to July. There's a lot more logistical coordination than people realize.
I happen to think this sort of thing is intentionally swept under the rug so as not to detract from the demonization of Israel that's been bred into the arab psyche for years.

[Lazarus]

BV,

Coordination between enemy armies is standard protocol. There is nothing odd in that, nor is it swept under the rug. The LAF and IDF has coordinated over the past three decades, and quite a few of the meetings are outlined in various sources. However, the Marjeyoun incident does not fall into the same realm, and I was just commenting on the comparison you made.

-l.

[fubar]

Turkey is coming to Lebanon.

No surprise there.

You will hear all kinds of stuff about Turkey not being the Turkey of just 4 years ago (if you haven't already). All true. But, the Turkish military is still secular and highly trained. These guys are good. Plus, the integration of Turkey (NATO) into UNIFIL 2 makes it much easier for other muslim nation troops (like Qatar) to adjust to European troops. Turkey is competent and has the experience in working with NATO forces.

Now let's see how quickly they are willing to get there. Not too quickly, I bet. But in time for the arrival of other muslims.

[bad vilbel]

Turkey joining the force is good news, for all the reasons fubar listed...

[someone]

This act cant be justified in any sense ,but maybe it is more a personal revenge than a political message,because this act cant help Syria gaining more power,nor stop the investigations about Rafik Hariri ,UNIFIL forces will continue to come inpiste of this accident.

Personally, i dont see any message to the ministry of interior or to the army that is deploying south,but on thing is sure ,the light is shed again on the investigation process ,maybe the internal security threat will be more important than the external one.

Again,internal threats are on the top ,the disarmament dialogue is neglected maybe will be forgotten soon.

[fubar]

There is no disarmament dialogue to be neglected. Hezbollah will never give up their missiles. Nothing to discuss.

(Daily Star, Sept. 6) The resistance will maintain its arsenal of rockets, he said, "as it did between 1996 and 2006." But he vowed that the weaponry would not be used "except in the case of vast military aggression against Lebanon."

His party would have "no problems" with the army or UNIFIL troops because "the resistance is honest, disciplined and cherishes its commitments," Nasrallah said.

"The government was clear when it tasked the army with defending the country and not disarming the resistance, spying on it or raiding the hideouts where it stores its weapons," he added.

Nasrallah called for the resumption of the national dialogue to discuss and formulate a national defense strategy "based on the latest experience of war with Israel."

He said Hizbullah was open to mending ties with Arab states that had been critical of the party during the war, notably Saudi Arabia. "Time will prove that Hizbullah was the biggest movement toward independence in Lebanon's history," he said.

Nasrallah denied allegations that he was presenting himself as a leader of the Arab and Islamic nation, or Lebanon, and praised the roles of Sunni religious leaders throughout the Arab world that had "succeeded in consolidating the Islamic arena and thwarting attempts of confessional division."

He also thanked President Emile Lahoud, Premier Fouad Siniora and Speaker Nabih Berri for their support, adding that he had also maintained contact with MP Saad Hariri.

Nasrallah said he was also open to re-establishing contacts with MP Walid Jumblatt, his most vocal critic, and highlighted his party's bond with MP Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement.

******

There is one bright spot from Lebanon. Apparently it has finally dawned on someone in Lebanon that the Israeli blockade will not be lifted until someone else takes over the arms embargo inspections.

(Daily Star, Sept. 6) Annan proposed that France, Italy and Greece patrol the Lebanese coast for the next two weeks, until German forces could take over, Le Monde newspaper quoted the secretary general as saying.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Tuesday he was still waiting for a formal request to contribute to the expanded UN force. [Germany has only been saying for two weeks they were ready and just waiting for the Lebanese govt. to make the request.]

French Foreign Ministry spokesman Jean-Baptiste Mattei insisted on Tuesday that the coastal patrol would be a "provisional measure" until German assets arrive.

********

1) National unity, what a beautiful thing.

2) So, what are we waiting for? There is already a floating armada currently just outside Lebanese waters. Oh, that's right, now we have to talk to France about the naval "rules of engagement."

[fubar]

e,

Did you watch part one of the captives TV broadcast?

What did you think? What is the Israeli reaction?

My sympathies to the families and to all of Israel...

(Okay if you don't want to respond on a public forum.)

[Ghassan Karam]

Someone,
I wish that you would refrain from making such assinine statements as: "maybe it is more a personal revenge than a political message" in describing the latest assasination attempt in Lebanon. Believe me when I tell you that pigs don't fly.
I do understand that each person is free to interpret events any way they choose but some attempts at justifying certain developments is insulting.

[e]

Fubar,
I didn't watch it but I saw the reactions of the parents of the soldiers. They believe based on the movie that 2 out of the 3 soldiers were pretty much ok after the attack and were murdered by HA. They also believe that the video was filmed by the UN and that the UN was lying all these years about not having the video. They think someone from the UN sold the video to LBC. They are going to pursue Anan about this so things could get interesting.

I think that the Israeli mood pendelum is swinging to the right and that the euphoria about Israel being another normal country devoted just to social and economic problems is gone. One has to view the film in this context. It seems to me that Israelis are in a pretty militant mood and the film will enhance this attitude. Expect increased defense expenditures in the next few years and a right wing government. Everybody believes tat there is going to be another war except perhaps me that still has hope that the internal Lebanese dialog or the low key civil war or whatever exactly is going on in Lebanon will work because the Lebanese are too smart to chose the Palestinian option.

e

[fubar]

e,

Glad to hear Israel is swinging right. Too dangerous a time to be liberal. Wish that it were not so, but this is no time to live in denial.

I'm in the there is going to be another war camp. Don't put too much faith in the UN or UNIFIL 2. When UNIFIL says emboldened, they mean emboldened at protecting their own skins. Hezbollah is smuggling weapons into the Palestinians, you will see things continue to heat up there. Expect anti-tank weapons, more technical IED's, and maybe longer range rockets eventually.

No one is going to disarm Hezbollah. And if anyone thinks otherwise, they are living in an alternate universe. Also, notice how the Lebanese Army moved anti-aicraft guns into Bint Jbail today. What are those for? Hezbollah now has an air force? (Hint: Those are for use against Israel.)
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/060905/photos_ts/2006_09_05t082352_450x302_us_mideast

As for the tape, well, we all know that the UN lies. I haven't seen this new program yet so I am not sure if it is new stuff or the old stuff. The UN had a tape related to the abduction of Omar Sawayid, Benny Avraham, and Adi Avitan, and they lied about it. It was filmed by an Indian UNIFIL soldier on October 8, 2000, the morning after, regarding the two cars used in the abduction that were abandoned and which UNIFIL was towing away when Hezbollah came and took them. Kofi and Terje Larsen lied about the tape even existing. When they did admit the tape existed, they then would not turn it over to Israel. When they finally did, in July 2001, it was edited and they blurred out the faces of the Hezbollah guys. President Lahoud and Sheikh Muhammad Ra'ad (Hezbollah) both objected personally to turning the tape, even edited, over to Israel. Those names sound familiar to you. Remember as well, it was Nahib Berri's Amal group that took Ron Arad prisoner.

The rumor of a second tape, the one from the actual kidnapping on Oct. 7, 2000, has been around as long as the rumor of the Oct. 8, 2000 tape. If they are showing actual footage of the kidnapping now, then rumor of that other tape being taken by UNIFIL seems to have at least a 50-50 chance of being true. I won't speculate other than to say fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Don't trust anything Kofi, Terje, or their minions say.

Don't you find it just a bit odd that Hezbollah build those bunkers under the noses of UNIFIL and no one knows anything about it. Give me a break.

[someone]

Ghassan,

I havent justified what happened ,i just said that i couldnt see any message to the security forces,so that is why i said maybe it was a personal revenge,somebody is feeling in danger when continuing the investigations,these things can happen when the security measures are not the best.This not an insult to anybody.I havent seen your interpretation yet.

fubar,

Things are going now through a building of a new government ,and neglecting everything for the moment that can stop this process.I think Nasrallah is already trying to arrange things to go this way.Maybe Jumblatt will accept joining the crew with Aoun,to make a basis for this government.The 14 march forces are pushed to be more concerned about the investigation process ,after the last accident,but i think all Lebanon is concerned in this investigation.

[Debbie]

The film "Hezbollah - Attacks by Proxy" which describes the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and the subsequent terror attacks against Israel that have been carried out with the support of Syria and Iran. The film not only describes Israel's military actions, but also reflects the effect of Hezbollah's terrorism on Israel's population.

Please click here: http://switch3.castup.net/cunet/gm.asp?ClipMediaID=191786&ak=null to view the film.

You can also click here:http://switch3.castup.net/cunet/gm.asp?ClipMediaID=191784&ak=null

to download a copy of the film (19.4 MB).

[fubar]

BERLIN (Expatica Sept. 5) - The Shiite Hezbollah militia has expressed "reservations" about Germany's involvement in the multinational UN force deploying for Lebanon, owing to German demands that its troops be allowed to stop and search boats bound for the country.
"Our reservations are regarding the German demand to search boats as they enter Lebanon," Hezbollah member of parliament Hussein Haj Hassan told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa on Tuesday. "Such a demand stands against the sovereignty of Lebanon."
Hezbollah "is not against the German government and has great respect for the German people," Haj Hassan stressed, "but they want the German government to review its stand towards Lebanon." Haj Hassan additionally accused Berlin of bias towards Israel's policies in the region.
. . .
The source, a close aide of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Seniora, confirmed that during a cabinet meeting on Monday the two Hezbollah cabinet ministers had expressed "reservations" about the Germans monitoring the sea off the coast of Lebanon.

*******

Lebanese sovereignty, again being used as an excuse to avoid the arms embargo by Hezbollah. Now there is a shocker.

[Innocent Criminal]

Fubar,

Please spare me. Why has no one discussed the empowerment of UNIFIL to shoot down Israeli planes that might breach Lebanese skies? To control the ceasefire and to block re-armament is fine with me as long as it will be enforced on both parties. But you can rest assured that if the Israeli’s decide to enter Lebanon again we would see the UNIFIL force excusing themselves ASAP just like their counterparts did outside the Gaza prison.

[e]

Innocent Criminal,
You are absolutely right. UNIFIL-2 is an European army and it is there to take care of western interests not Syrian or Iranian. HA made a major concession agreeing to this force and I think they got more than they bargained for. UNIFIL-2 should be viewed as Saniora's militia. The fact that it is stationed in the Shia heartland only weakens HA further because they cannot use the south of Lebanon as a base to mount a coup. Israel would not have agreed to this force otherwise.
The question is why you find all this objectionable. I would argue that this is in Lebanon's interest also and reduces the chances of another war.
e

[bad vilbel]

The main purpose of UNIFIL-2, whether you like it or not, is to enforce the arms embargo on Hezbollah, not to enforce Lebanese sovereignty from Israeli overflights.

And you know what? I'm ok with that.

[charlie]

Innocent Criminal,

I do agree UNIFIL-2 is not going to actively try and stop over flights, although they could help support Lebanon's case if that gets to be a big problem. The bottom line is an independent and sovereign Lebanon is currently facing a much bigger threat from a rogue group like HA who is representing an Iranian-Syrian agenda rather than from Israel. Remember, it was HA's actions that invited Israel back to Lebanon in a big way!! UNIFIL-2 could provide the Lebanese government with the breathing room it needs to face the internal political battles.

[fubar]

(Reuters) Lebanon on Wednesday asked UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to authorize the deployment of German naval ships to monitor the Lebanese coast after Israel announced it was lifting an air and sea embargo.

"Prime Minister (Fouad) Siniora sent a letter to Annan a short time ago requesting German naval assistance to monitor the coast after Israel announced the lifting of the embargo starting Thursday," a Lebanese government official said.

****

Score one for Siniora.

[bad vilbel]

fubar,

I don't think there ever was any question about this one.

In fact, I don't think there's much questions about anything right now. Things might be looking "iffy" on the surface, as everyone keeps pointing out, but I happen to think ALL of this is part of the "masterplan".

Make no mistake about it, Siniora and co (excluding the HA guys) are looking to work with Israel here (even if they never admit to it). It is in Lebanon's interests, and it is in the interests of Siniora specifically to do whatever he can to marginalize HA, and impose true Lebanese sovereignty (arms embargo included). Siniora is smart enough to recognize that he's been given a small advantage by this war, in terms of internal politics (against HA and Aoun) and he's making the most of it. And for once, he's being given a lot of resources: German ships, French tanks and artillery, and even, probably, Israeli "cooperation" where need be.

You'll never hear him say all this, for obvious reasons...but it's there for anyone with a keen eye to see.

[fubar]

bad vilbel,

You are just too smart for me. LOL

A blind man who sees is better than a seeing man who is blind.

Just don't get too cocky on the masterplan. There is still much that can go wrong.

[bad vilbel]

HAHA! No way. I realize that this plan is too fragile still. We'll have to see how it plays out.

[charlie]

bad vilbel,
The bad part about all this is that Syria is very much aware of this Master Plan as well. Its success is deadly to the Baath regime, which puts Siniora physically in harms way...Don't be surprise to see an assasination attempt on him at this stage..Assad is growing increasingly desperate by the day...

[fubar]

Desperate men have been known to do desperate things.

Assad and Nasrallah both may fit the bill.

[bad vilbel]

Indeed.

[Ghassan Karam]

BV,
Is Siniora planning on establishing Lebanese sovereignty by becoming the mouthpiece for HA? A Masterplan, as you call it, requires statesman and I sure don't see any around.

[bad vilbel]

Ghassan,

I'm not trying to pass Siniora as a statesman. You and I have agreed on this issue more often than not. Lebanon doesn't have anyone right now who can pass as a real statesman and do the things that really need to be done.

However, within the boundaries of who we have to work with at the moment, I believe he is indeed playing along with the "plan" (hehe, we need some sort of codename for it now). The plan is really bigger than Siniora and ultimately, it won't matter if it's him or some other guy in charge, as long as the end result is accomplished.

The strategic goal, in my opinion here, is to continue what was started in 2004-05: The breaking away of Lebanon from the Syrian orbit, once and for all. The further weakening of Syria's cards in the Arab-Israel conflict, so that Syria and it's master Iran are no longer relevant to the peace initiative the "moderate" arab countries are about to propose.

(PS: Read my latest entry over on my blog for a slightly more in depth discourse on the matter, if you're interested).

[charlie]

You gotta be kidding me...Is this poll messed up or are the majority of the Lebanese very ignorant!!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=75294

[bad vilbel]

I just saw that, Charlie.

I'm gonna go with "the majority of the Lebanese are very ignorant", unfortunately.

Although there is no real explanation of how or where the poll was conducted. So that's somewhat suspect too. But for the most part, the Lebanese people continue to act like sheep and let their so-called leaders make their positions for them.
Someone might wanna point out to these folks that they were given a brain for a reason...Use it.

[Ghassan Karam]

No self respecting government will keep asking for help and yet will not do much to help itself. Unfortunately that is the state of where we are at in the Lebanese cabinet. The same cabinet that wanted the international community to stop the Israeli aggression whose direct spark was the failure of the Lebanese government to do anything about controlling its borders or deploying its army is the one that agreed to 1701 and 1559 before that. It is the same cabinet that begged for economic aid and has been granted over a billion and a half dollars worth. But this government also failed to imliment 1559 and has decided not to imlement 1701 either. Note that the foreign ministry announced that Lebanon will not release the two Israeli kidnapped soldiers except through negotiations . That is not what Lebanon agreed to under 1701 which stipulates clearly that the two Israeli soldiers are to re released unconditionally. But that does not matter anylonger to the Lebanese authorities. The war has been stopped, the siege is lifted and Lebanon can go back to its old traditional self. Never exercise any of the committments thatit agrees to if HA objects. What a shameless bunch of you-cannot-trust-them-good-for-nothing-politicians. Why should they be trusted when they have never had the courage to speak against HA but instead they have evolved to become its mouthpiece!!!

[fubar]

Well, Ghassan Karam, I could not agree with you more. And that is why I am in the Hezbollah will not be disarmed and there will be another war camp.

No matter how many countries are trying to help Lebanon (including Israel), Lebanon's entire form of government is designed for mediocrity and stalemate. It encourages devolution to the lowest common denominator, not the rise of the best and the brightest clear vision for Lebanon's future.

Hezbollah has been neutralized as a threat to Israel for the immediate future. That was the primary goal of 1701. It has been and continues to be accomplished.

The survivability of Lebanon in a form we all want to see is the secondary consideration of 1701. Unfortunately, that is the part that really depends on Lebanon. So, we wait, and eventually we will see.

As I often note... Past performance is the best indicator of future performance. The number of UN resolutions on Lebanon that are "recalled" in the opening of 1701 does not bode well for Lebanon.

[bad vilbel]

Gentlemen,

You may well be right. But you've also got to give this stuff time to materialize. I choose to be patient and wait and see. I've said before that I don't expect the Lebanese government to "speak up" or act empowered until the UNIFIL force is deployed, the blockade lifted, and the LAF firmly deployed in the South.

Now I might be way off, and they might continue lollygagging even after the above listed conditions are in place. In which case, I'm with Ghassan. But I also realize that in the real world of politics and diplomacy, things don't happen overnight, and people don't say what they really mean. Expecting ANY lebanese leader to do what Ghassan expects - that "in your face" attitude - is completly unrealistic.

I'm more interested in seeing how things look in a month or two. If by then, the government is still bullshitting and beating around the bush about HA's weapons, then we have a problem.

[e]

I totally agree with Bad Vilbel. I might add that HA are not doing so well either especially with the displaced rural communities. Reconstruction means more than paying $12,000 for rent. It means rebuilding the house and getting one's job back. The extent of the disaster that HA brought on Lebanon in general and the Shia community in particular has not been fully digested yet. It will take time for what happened to sink in and the initial "victory" euphria to dissipate. Moods will change and the government will be emboldened.
e

[Free Cedar]

Bad Vilbel, although I agree with you and nothing is done overnight, how long are we going to use that excuse? The majority hasn't done much all it did is allowing HA to take advantage of the system and showed how they could easily be manipulated. Unless they take a stand I fail to see how far they will go. But you are right better wait and see, and I do hope this time they learned their lesson and it will be for the best.

[Ghassan Karam]

e/BV,
Oh how much I wish that your interpretation turns out to be accurate. But I am afraid that I have no choice but to label that position as nothing short of wishful thinking and pure fantacy.
I would have been more than eager to agree with you had Mr. Siniora been acting to bide his time in order for the environment to change in his favour. That is not what he has done thus far. He has failed up until now to even hint at the responsibility of HA and to take historic decisions that require statesmanship and resolve similar to those taken by Sadat or even Husein. The present government is making it impossible for itself to ever oppose HA seriously because they have either adopted its position or have chosen to become its defender. As if that is not enough , they even go further by announcing over and over again that Lebanon will be the last country to sign a peace treaty with Israel. I can understand the logic that a peace treaty with Israel is wrong but to suggest that a peace treaty all of a sudden becomes acceptable once Syria signs its treaty is false, illogical and even cowardly. What makes an action right is not whether the dictator next doors agrees to it but it should be measured on its own merit. As we have argued many times before this current Lebanese adminstration had shown no interest or committment in implementing the totality of 1559 neither are they acting as if the first clause of 1701 concerns them. They have to realize what is clear to anyone who is familiar with international policies and the ramifications of such measures. These measures pocess an integrity of their own and they cannot be violated by being treated as a cafeteria line where one can pick and cjose certain clauses and reject others. Lebanon must change radically its behaviour because if it does not do so then the rest of the world that has often come to its aid will just feel exacperated and let us reap the fruits of what we have sown.

[bad vilbel]

Ghassan,

Again, you're preaching to the choir. I have all the same misgivings as you. I'm just waiting to see what happens in a month, specially if/when the arab league re-activates its peace initiative (and goes at it without Syria).

As for the rest, it's all rethoric. I don't care what Siniora is saying or not saying. He's said 20 different contradictory things in the past 2 months. He talked about peace with Israel, then he said he'd be the last to sign it. He scolded HA, then he praised them. I don't put any stock in any of these words. I'm waiting to see what actions will transpire. If nothing transpires in a month, i'll be here, right besides you, screaming for change.

[e]

Ghassan,
In addition to what Bad Vilbel said to which I agree, let me point out one emboldened thing Saniora did: He actually wrote a letter inviting the Germans to actively monitor sea traffic. The Germans are actually going to do the job Israel is doing now. Of course, the amount of vagueness that this whole process was clouded in is amazing. So much smoke and mirrors, but the Germans got their letter and will do the job. In effect, Lebanon relinquished sovereignity against HA's will. Let's wait and see what happens on the Syrian border. That will be a bigger test.
e

[fubar]

And had you all really been watching, you would have known that Siniora wrote that letter and got majority agreement on it last Saturday/Sunday. We have just been waiting for the past 3 days for the haggling with the French to be done (which apparently is still not even done today, thanks again France for all you don't do). And once again, Lebanon had to insist on the childish behavior of Israel has to go first and say they will lift the blockade and then we will "request" Germany's help. During all this child's play, Hebollah and the opposition, knowing the pieces had already been set in place to lift the blockade by replacing it with Europeans doing the same damn thing, grandstanded with fierce statements of false Lebanese courage about breaking the blockade, whining as much as possible to anyone who would listen about the nasty Israeli blockade, and now claims that it forced the end of the blockade. This post war gamesmanship is juvenile at best. And it sure does not instill confidence in me. Even the diploboys are grousing and you know that is not good.

e, I don't care how much pressure Condi and the diploboys are applying, there comes a point when Israel has to say enough. I hope that time has come now with the newest statement by Olmert -- "until the kidnapped soldiers are released, there will not be full implementation of UN Security Council resolution 1701. Israel is implementing its side of the resolution, and thus, Lebanon must do the same and release the two kidnapped soldiers immediately." When Condi and the diploboys come knocking again for a favor for the Lebanese, just say "we'll get right on to considering that, immediately after the men come home." You know, most of us here in the US really do respect strength of character - we won't hold it against you and will even admire you for it. We got your back & that is non-negotiable.

[bad vilbel]

fubar,

Unfortunately, the degrees of chidlishness and juvenlie behavior you're seeing here is par for the course when it comes to Lebanese "leaders" (I use the term VERY loosely).
You think this is bad, you should've seen these jackasses back in the 80s and 90s (civil war era).

At this point, I'm choosing to remain positive, but let me put it this way: I'm hoping things work out DESPITE these idiots, because I certainly don't think things will work out BECAUSE of these idiots.

Fair enough? :)

[fubar]

bad vilbel,

Fair enough.

[e]

Fubar,
Olmert is really disliked now in Israel. Nobody is giving this coalition a chance to get to spring. It was leaked to a reliable reporter that when Netanyahu was asked if he would join the government he said: Since when do the rats get on the sinking ship?
So elections are probable in Israel in summer or fall of next year the latest. In the meantime, expect more wimpy behavior from Olmert. Maybe he will surprise us but based on his actions so far I doubt it. He will use the kidnapped soldiers just as an excuse for overflights. Nothing more. He will lift the blockade and get the IDF our of Lebanon without getting the soldiers back and he will pay a hefty political price.
e

[fubar]

e,

Well, it is not all Olmert's fault. But the man in charge always has to take the fall, comes with the job. And Israelis can be vicious (as I see from your media outlets).

Bebe was just here. And Ya'alon has joined up with Likud. Looks like a plan is being put in place to me.

Alas, a public forum is not the place for the real chats about Israel that I would like to engage in.

Did you see the newest tunnels found Sept. 6, 2006 by the IDF? Film on YouTube. By the munitions they left behind, looks like Hezbollah left in a big hurry. Can't recall what the title was right now to send you direct, but vital perspective has it on their web page.

http://www.vitalperspective.com/

You might be interested in the entry just below the tunnel entry on that site as well.

[fubar]

Siniora speaks:

(Daily Star, Sept. 8) BEIRUT: Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said Thursday that the ongoing Israeli naval blockade of Lebanon was the result of a "small problem between the United Nations and Israel, and will be resolved quickly."

In a news conference held at the Grand Serail in the evening, the premier pledged that the government would protect its exclusive right to the use of force and exert its sovereignty over all Lebanese territory.

"The Lebanese will succeed in establishing sovereignty and freedom. Only the government, through the Lebanese Army, will extend its control over the borders with the Occupied Palestinian Territories," Siniora said.

"We seek the establishment of a government that protects and not destroys the country. It will enjoy an authority over all its territories without any partnership or duality," he said.

Siniora listed the government's current priorities.

"Our first priority is to fulfill the demands and the basic rights of our people. This should be achieved by rebuilding the infrastructure, including institutions and schools and facilitating the return of the displaced to their towns," he said.

The government's second priority was to launch reconstruction projects and economic reforms. "We have been working for several weeks on a reconstruction plan and an economic plan that would create job opportunities for the youth and attract investors," the premier said, adding that the private sector "is asked to present its aptitude in that matter."

"I am confident that we will overcome the challenge of reconstruction," he said.

Political reforms and the enhancement of the country's institutions was the government's third concern.

"We want to build a strong state that would be capable of protecting the citizens and ensuring their rights," Siniora said. "After this cruel lesson that resulted from the government's weakness, and sometimes total absence, we have learned that the solution resides in promoting democracy and abiding by the Taif Accord and the Constitution."

Political reforms should be achieved by enhancing the independence of the judiciary, holding open discussions on a newly drafted electoral law and tidying up governmental institutions, he said.

"We have to deploy further efforts to succeed in our political battle and meet our commitments toward the international community," Siniora said.

According to the premier, the government would work to restore local and international trust in Lebanon. Lifting the Israeli blockade "is not the end of the crisis," he said. "We need to deploy all possible efforts to achieve the Israeli withdrawal from all the Lebanese territories, liberate the detainees and the Shebaa Farms and complete the army deployment."