From Beirut to the Beltway

The real issue

Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad, who is in Doha engaging in dialogue with people he went to war against last week, has said that discussing the resistance weapons is "out of the question". He and his pal Hussein Hajj Hassan categorically denied that the issue is even on the Doha talks agenda, accusing the "ruling team" of "making up this issue to mislead domestic, Arab and international public opinion into thinking there is an issue on the discussion table called the resistance weapons or weapons in general".

Hizbullah has been selling its assault on Beirut and Mount Lebanon as an attempt to foil a "conspiracy similar to the July 2006 conspiracy", marketing the dead Hizbullah fighters who were butchered by the Druze as "martyrs who fell in a great war and who foiled great conspiracies… manufactured by Bush and his allies in the West and Israel ".

اعتبر رئيس المجلس السياسي في حزب الله سماحة السيد إبراهيم أمين السيد أن ما حصل في الآونة الأخيرة في لبنان أسقط مؤامرة شبيهة بمؤامرة حرب تموز، وقال في أسبوع الشهيد عباس مصطفى الهبش في حي السلم: "من جهة المؤامرة هناك تشابه مع حرب تموز لأن المعركة على المقاومة وسلاحها التي حصلت كانت مقررة لاحقاً، ويمكن أن يكونوا أخطأوا  في التقدير والحسابات وأخذوا قرارات لم يكونوا يعتقدون أن المقاومة ستأخذ هذا القرار بالدفاع عن سلاحها. لكن في النهاية، تعطلت هذه المؤامرة كما تعطلت مؤامرة حرب تموز لأن الإسرائيليين كانوا قد خططوا لشن حرب على المقاومة ليس في تموز وإنما بعد تموز، وفي هذا المعنى فإن الشهداء الذين سقطوا ، سقطوا في حرب كبرى وأسقطوا مؤامرات كبرى، وحموا بدمائهم هذه المقاومة العظيمة وشهداء تموز حموا دمائهم، حموا نصرهم كما حموا لبنان واللبنانيين. إن ما حصل سقط فيه من صَنع هذه المؤامرة وهو بوش ومن معه في العالم الغربي وإسرائيل"

I have no doubt in my mind that many Shias will buy this rubbish. In fact, in Hizbullah controlled mosques, funerals turned into anti-government festivals, attended by representatives of the militia, and of Michel Aoun's party, the FPM. 

Back in Doha, the Prince of Qatar, seeing that March 14 will not quit talking about those weapons, and realizing that even he does not fathom how they killing other Lebanese is foiling a great conspiracy, has vowed to come up with a "formula", says Future TV. One hopes the prince doesn't borrow from the Cairo agreement, which legitimized the PLO's weapons, and established security "islands" within the country where the army has no authority.

So far, there is no indication that this issue will be resolved in Doha, although March 14 seems determined to at least get guarantees that the weapons will not be used domestically, and that their fate will be discussed at a later point. Other issues seem to be taking precedence anyway, such as the electoral law and the makeup of the cabinet. We're told that agreement over these two matters will lead to the immediate election of Michel Suleiman. MP Michel Murr has even predicted that Suleiman will be elected by "Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest". 

It is not clear to me how a new cabinet, a new electoral law and a new president will make Hizbullah's weapons disappear. Hizbullah has pretty much emasculated Suleiman, and a cabinet where the "opposition" has increased power will never rule in favor of putting an end to Hizbullah's weapons. And has someone pondered how a militia can be allowed to not only field candidates, but also dictate how the country should be districted? Here's Geagea in an excerpt from his opening speech on the first day of the talks, as leaked by the media.

وتلاه جعجع الذي اعتبر ان القضية ليست قضية حكومة ولا قانون انتخاب ولا حتى رئاسة جمهورية بل ابعد واخطر من ذلك بكثير انها قضية وجود السلاح ونتائجه في الآونة الاخيرة وقال: "نريد ان نعرف ما هو مصير هذا السلاح قبل البحث في اي موضوع آخر، كما نريد ان نعرف حدود مسؤولية الدولة عن امن المواطن وعلاقة هذا السلاح بالدولة. لقد ادى ما حصل الى ما نخشى من حصوله على الدولة والجيش فما جرى كان خطيرا جدا ومن دون افق وتاليا فإن اي حل سياسي من دون تحديد افق للسلاح يبقى من دون جدوى".

Regardless, it seems the Prince of Qatar is finally getting some exercise. He has managed to bring the two sides together in one suite, and has expanded his talks to include Syria and Iran. The waiting game is on.

Finally, my parents are back in their home, for now.  Their immediate concern, as with all Lebanese, is security. The roads are open, but the future Hizbullah martyrs and their pals are still lurking in corners, waiting for the opportune moment to remind us, once again, that their weapons are the real issue.

Who will stand up for the anti-Hizbullah Mufti?

While March 14 and the Hizbullah-dominated "opposition" are engaging in "dialogue" in Doha, Hizbullah continues to muzzle its critics within the Shia community. The anti-Hizbullah Tyre Mufti Ali al-Amin, whose headquarters were vandalized and occupied by Amal gunmen, was removed from his post by the Amal- dominated Shia council, even though the council has no authority to do so. Muftis are appointed by the state following a recommendation from the council, which has been paralyzed since the death of Mohammad Mahdi Shamseddine many years ago.   

Al-Amin lashed out at the council, accusing it of having no authority to fire him, and pointing out that the council itself has lost legitimacy since Berri and Hizbullah refused to hold elections to choose new executive and legislative bodies.

The council had issued a statement supporting and legitimizing Hizbullah's May 7th attack on citizens and the state.   

The militia started a war after the government dismissed a Shia employee suspected of spying for Hizbullah. Will the government, which revoked its decision, stand up for the Mufti, who is, by his own definition, a Lebanese citizen first, and a Shia second?

Somehow, I doubt it. These are sad times for the Shia community in Lebanon.

Here is al-Amin's statement to An-Nahar in Arabic:

"الاخوة في جريدة "النهار"، قرأت في جريدتكم الغراء خبرا صادرا عن المجلس الشيعي يتعلق بادارة دار الافتاء الجعفري في صور والموجود فيها منزلي ومكاتبي والتي احتلها مسلحون من حركة "امل" الاسبوع الماضي واخرجوا اولادي والموظفين بقوة السلاح ولا يزالون فيها حتى كتابة هذا البيان.

يهمني القول ان المجلس الشيعي ليست له صلاحية قانونية وشرعية في هذه الامور لان التعيين في منصب الافتاء يكون من خلال الدولة اللبنانية بعد اقتراح الاسم من المؤسسة الدينية. وان مؤسسة المجلس الشيعي انتهت ولايتها القانونية بكل هيئاتها الشرعية والتنفيذية منذ وفاة الامام شمس الدين وقد امتنعت الجهات المهيمنة على المجلس الشيعي عن اجراء الانتخابات منذ ذلك الحين، ونحن نشهد لهم بقدرتهم على تعطيل الانتخابات في هذه المؤسسة الدينية المهمة، وان القادر على تعطيل انتخابات رئيس الجمهورية واغلاق مجلس النواب وفرض تراجع الحكومة عن قراراتها وقوانينها واجتياح بيروت بقوة السلاح هو قادر على تعطيل هذه المؤسسة التي تحولت مع الاسف الشديد اداة وغطاء لقوى الامر الواقع.

ونحن عندما اتخذنا مواقفنا الرافضة لسياسة هذه القوى التي اضرت بسمعة الطائفة الشيعية ومستقبلها ومكانتها في وطنها لبنان والعالم العربي لم نأخذ منصب الافتاء في الاعتبار والاهتمام لان المهم عندنا حريتنا واقتناعاتنا الدينية والوطنية بان مصلحة اهلنا في الجنوب والبقاع والضاحية هي في المحافظة على العيش المشترك مع كل الطوائف اللبنانية وفي انخراط كل الاحزاب في مشروع الدولة الواحدة التي تشكل وحدها الحماية والضمانة لكل اللبنانيين

Another stupid "victory"

I wonder how the Arab delegation felt when it was greeted by a resigned minister and a dismissed security official dubbed the “Assad of the airport”. Did it seem OK to them to be received by anti-government figures instead of the country’s legitimate authority? The message Hizbullah tried to communicate was clear: we are now in charge.

The government’s decision today to revoke the decisions will be perceived as victory by Hizbullah. As with other victories claimed by the group, this alleged one cost many Lebanese lives. Nearly 70 people died. And now, more than ever before, the country’s unity and independence seem like far away dreams.

I am not sure if I can find solace in the anti-Hizbullah resistance that this has awakened, specifically what happened in the Jabal, not that I'm not glad someone somewhere checked their advances. The sectarian genie, as some of you put it, is out of the bottle. As a Lebanese Shia, it distresses me that Hizbullah has prevented my family from living at peace with their Sunni and Druze neighbors. My immediate family, once residents of a mixed neighborhood near Choueifat, were forced to flee south after Hizbullah gunmen invaded their neighborhood. They are now refugees in the south, forced to endure the verbal terrorism of Hizbullah supporters, and fearing retaliation and accusations of treason, should it come out that they supported March 14.

In my last conversation with my father, a Shia who hails from the south but grew up in Beirut, he said he didn’t know where to go. Thanks to Hizbullah, anti-Shia sentiments are at an all time high in most non-Shia areas.

Hizbullah, of course, has been investing this to boost resentment towards March 14. In many southern and Bekaa towns, young and old Shias have been brainwashed into believing that Hariri and Jumblatt want to kill them and sell them to the Israelis. Even before these recent events, the amount of anger built up against March 14 was unfathomable. Short of shutting down all Hizbullah media, and banning the militia from political and public life, there is no way out for the Shia community from this web of deceit.

What didn’t help was the army commander’s failure to at least instill a sense of rule of law in that community, which produced some of the hooligans who burned tires and blocked roads. Granted being an army commander and a presidential candidate at the same time is neither normal nor easy. And frankly, March 14 helped put him in that situation, regardless of the man’s true political leanings.

Only after some “40 pro-government officers” submitted their resignations in protest over his alleged “neutrality”, did Suleiman feel compelled to defend his decision to not intervene, and order his troops to use force against violators, something that remains to be seen, given the continued presence of Hizbullah in the city and in other areas.

Going after Suleiman at this point may seem counterproductive. Both Jumblatt and Hariri don’t see any wisdom in doing it. A weakened Suleiman is not in their best interest. On the one hand, rejecting him as a consensus candidate gives Hizbullah more maneuvering power and arguments to continue stalling the election of a president. On the other hand, backing him while the standoff continues also creates complexities, one of them being his inability to move against one of the parties to the alleged consensus—which is what happened last week when he found his hands tied and himself reluctant to upset the wavering and heavily armed “opposition”.

It is safe to say that Suleiman and with him the country has been stuck in Hizbullah’s web of deceit since the “party” lost its traditional theater of operations in the south after the 2006 war. The militia has obstructed everything from the presidential election to economic reform, and the reason is obvious: UNSC 1559 and 1701. Siniora probably does not regret helping putting an end to the people’s suffering in 2006, but there might be a tinge of regret in indirectly helping Hizbullah regroup and re-arm by softening the tone of the resolution. Much to his and the Lebanese people’s dismay, Hizbullah paid everyone back by taking the country and its executive authority hostage.

The options ahead are not many: civil war, partition, or a combination. I don’t believe the Arab League will be successful in its mission. Hizbullah, and I hope I am proven wrong, will continue to occupy downtown Beirut, and remain in control of the airport. March 14 will activate other ports of entry for safer travel, part of what Jumblatt described as “coexistence” with Hizbullah. March 14 might want the issue of Hizbullah’s weapons as first item in any dialogue, but I don’t think they truly believe they can succeed in placing conditions on their use. 

It became clear after the Hariri assassination and the July war that for Lebanon to survive, Hizbullah needs to cease to exist in its current form. Arabs had better spend their time putting pressure on Syria and Iran, and not wasting time sponsoring useless "dialogue" sessions between a militia and the state it’s terrorizing.

Hariri: no dialogue under Hizbullah's weapons

Future Movement leader Saad Hariri said that there will be no dialogue under the threat of Hizbullah's weapons, and vowed to never surrender to Iran and Syria. He said all sects are depressed over what happened, including the Shias in the south, who saw Hizbullah invade the very homes that welcomed them during Israeli aggression.

He said the army will be held accountable at a later date, adding that "they" will monitor its commitment to maintaining civil peace through the cabinet. He acknowledged that the military failed to protect citizens, adding it was the citizens themselves who ended up defending its unity.

He said any dialogue should have the security of the country and Hizbullah's weapons as a top item. He also said that Hizbullah's monopoly over "war and peace decisions" will no longer be acceptable.

Hariri confirmed that the cabinet will revoke the two decisions, but accused Hizbullah of using it as an excuse to implement a regional plot to take over the country, suggesting that Israel might have given the green light for Hizbullah to move troops across Lebanese territory towards Beirut and the mountain, as part of the Syrian-Israeli negotiations.

Hariri defended his decision not to fight in Beirut, saying that the Future Movement was not founded to carry weapons and conduct wars.

Update. I obviously could not capture everything he said. More here and in the comments section. I'm going away on a business trip, so blogging will be sporadic this week. Thanks to all for reading!

Lebanese army to use force

The Lebanese army command has remembered its duty. A statement today said that the army units will use force against any armed individual or group beginning 6 am May 13th. The army has come under fire for failing to protect citizens.

Meanwhile, Berri has postponed the elections until June 10th.

Hizbullah's demands and Bashar's comeback

Hizbullah wants March 14 and the government to surrender everything, from executive power to weapons they say Jumblatt has in the Chouf mountain. At the same time, they get to keep their weapons and use heavy artillery against the civilian population.

Parliament speaker and Amal militia leader Nabih Berri wants the government to revoke the two decisions affecting Hizbullah, as a condition to ending the war and starting his proposed dialogue, which he decreed should precede the election of a president. 

Talal Arslan, the pro-Syrian Druze defeated by Jumblatt in the last elections, has been acting as mediator between Hizbullah and Jumblatt, who had agreed to hand over all PSP positions to the Lebanese army. In a press conference today, Arslan implicitly sent Jumblatt's supporters a warning to surrender today or risk Hizbullah fury tomorrow. Arslan warned Jumblatt's supporters that the Lebanese army will not protect them if they decide not to surrender their weapons and alleged weapons cache. He cited a list, which he probably got from his Syrian masters, detailing the whereabouts of Jumblatt's weapons cache.

Although Jumblatt, who is besieged in his Beirut residence, had agreed to these demands, his supporters and other residents of Chouf could not get themselves to accept those terms, which would mean the Jabal falling under Syrian hegemony once again. They put up a good fight against Hizbullah in some villages, and suffered heavy bombardment.

In an interview with al-Hayat published today, Jumblatt said Hizbullah's objective is to prevent March 14 from ruling. Bashar Assad wants to replace him with Arslan, Jumblatt said, adding that the decision to not fight back was hard.

Jumblatt admitted that he and Hariri could have put up a fight, but that they would have eventually suffered a defeat due to the other side's superior capabilities. He said he remembered the threat Bashar Assad made to Rafik Hariri before he killed him. "I will destroy the country over your head", Bashar had said. "I did not want the country to burn, and have people say Jumblatt was the reason, even if I were in a position of self-defence… we evaluated the situation on the ground and saw that we could enter the confrontation but our capabilities are limited compared to Hizbullah's… I didn't want the people of the jabal to commit suicide."

Siniora's cabinet was expected to meet today to revoke the two decisions, after receiving a request from the Lebanese Army command, which has been acting as a messenger for Hizbullah.

March 14's position has been debated at length on this blog. Hariri has not uttered a single word since the first day of the war. His proposal was adopted by the cabinet, but the opposition wanted Siniora to reverse its decisions.

It doesn't look like March 14 will be able to control the masses any longer. The anti-Hizbullah resistance in the Jabal, and the Future movement's action in the north, suggest that Hizbullah will soon have to deal with a rebellious population. Qatar succeeded in buying time for Hizbullah to create more facts on the ground, but the delegation of ministers it will head will find that many Lebanese people do not care about dialogue with the likes of Nasrallah.

Update. It looks like the Syrians will not even allow the the Arab League delegation to land in Lebanon. Bashar's stooge Wiam Wahab today described Amr Moussa, who reportedly is insisting on using the Beirut airport,  as a "small spy who sold himself to Saudi Arabia.. we would prefer to negotiate directly with the Americans".  The pro-Syrian militias have been firing at the Saudi Embassy since the start of Hizbullah's war against the state, forcing the Saudi ambassador to flee the country. One wonders how long the Saudis will wait before they take some form of action against Bashar.

Arab League to the rescue

The Arab League has decided to dispatch a ministerial committee headed by Qatar to Lebanon to help resolve the situation, and offered the Lebanese army "logistical assistance" if needed.

Once in Lebanon, this committee will "formulate ideas" and organize dialogue outside Lebanon, possible Qatar.

Looks like Hizbullah will have some time to create more facts on the ground before anything substantial takes place. I was watching a talk show on LBC, they had a Saudi journalist arguing that the regional powers will not allow Iran to gain control over Lebanon, and another US-based analyst saying that the Lebanese are on their own, with no one, especially the US, capable of intervening. They are banking on Hizbullah's "political defeat".

Update. Check this out. Justifying an attack on Siniora and the Serail?

Former Minister Talal Arslan to NTV Television: Siniora is plotting with Israel and foreign embassies against Lebanon’s sovereignty, security and economy. (Now Lebanon)

Jumblatt knew what was going to happen

Fubar has reminded me of this old post from last year:

Jumblatt: Lebanese army will not intervene in case of coup

The Lebanese army would not intervene if the Hizbullah-led "opposition" invaded the government building to overthrow Fouad Siniora's cabinet, Walid Jumblatt told Aljazeera yesterday, quoting a letter he said he received from an army general. "This implies a coup d'etat and a great catastrophy," he said. Jumblatt added that he asked army commander Michel Suleiman not to assume neutrality if riots broke out following a "presidential vacuum".

Jumblatt warned of a coup by Hizbullah, which he said was close to storming the government Serail on January 23rd had it not been to intervention by Arab countries and even Iran, which was concerned that a civil war would hurt its interests in the south. He described Hassan Nasrallah as a tool for a greater project, who cannot detach himself from the Assad regime and from his financial and military interests with Iran.

The Druze leader said he didn't mind being accused of being part of the American project, as long as the objective is to protect Lebanon from the Assad regime and the "Persian hegemony".

Jumblatt said the settlement of the crisis over the presidency should take place in Bkirki, and not Ain El Tineh (Berri's residence), adding that Sfeir has to know how to pick according to the conditions of the Cedar Revolution. Jumblatt said, however, that it was really up to the parliament's majority to select a candidate. He added that he has been lobbying for American and international recognition of a March 14 president elected by a simple majority.

On Suleiman's candidacy, Jumblatt said he told the army commander that he was opposed to amending the constitution, and that if Suleiman wanted a political position, he has to take off the army uniform first and become "a deputy, minister and maybe later a president... but no to the military returning to power".

Jumblatt said he hopes Aoun returns to his former self after his meeting with Hariri in Paris. He added that the former general has become a prisoner of Hizbullah and Syria, and that the meeting between the two (Jumblatt and Aoun) was canceled because Aoun said he could not meet with those who insult his allies.

What happened between October 31, 2007 and now? And even if they had known, could they have done anything different? Did Suleiman give them false guarantees in return for their support?

The Lebanese army would not intervene if the Hizbullah-led "opposition" invaded the government building to overthrow Fouad Siniora's cabinet, Walid Jumblatt told Aljazeera yesterday, quoting a letter he said he received from an army general. "This implies a coup d'etat and a great catastrophy," he said. Jumblatt added that he asked army commander Michel Suleiman not to assume neutrality if riots broke out following a "presidential vacuum".

Jumblatt warned of a coup by Hizbullah, which he said was close to storming the government Serail on January 23rd had it not been to intervention by Arab countries and even Iran, which was concerned that a civil war would hurt its interests in the south. He described Hassan Nasrallah as a tool for a greater project, who cannot detach himself from the Assad regime and from his financial and military interests with Iran.

The Druze leader said he didn't mind being accused of being part of the American project, as long as the objective is to protect Lebanon from the Assad regime and the "Persian hegemony".

Jumblatt said the settlement of the crisis over the presidency should take place in Bkirki, and not Ain El Tineh (Berri's residence), adding that Sfeir has to know how to pick according to the conditions of the Cedar Revolution. Jumblatt said, however, that it was really up to the parliament's majority to select a candidate. He added that he has been lobbying for American and international recognition of a March 14 president elected by a simple majority.

On Suleiman's candidacy, Jumblatt said he told the army commander that he was opposed to amending the constitution, and that if Suleiman wanted a political position, he has to take off the army uniform first and become "a deputy, minister and maybe later a president... but no to the military returning to power".

Jumblatt said he hopes Aoun returns to his former self after his meeting with Hariri in Paris. He added that the former general has become a prisoner of Hizbullah and Syria, and that the meeting between the two (Jumblatt and Aoun) was canceled because Aoun said he could not meet with those who insult his allies.

Hizbullah continues military offensive in Chouf

Areas in Aley are being bombed by Hizbullah artillery, and clashes broke out between Hizbullah, pro-Syrian Arslan and Jumblatt's PSP in Choueifat, forcing many residents to flee. My parents, who live in the area, have fled under gunfire and heavy bombardment.

Walid Jumblatt in a phone call to LBC, described the clashes as unfortunate clashes between Shias and Druze, and said he agreed to Arslan's mediation offer to stop hostilities. A breathless Jumblatt called on his fighters to remember that coexistence and civil peace are more important than anything else, and advised Arslan to rely on the Lebanese army.

LBC reported that Hizbullah is bombing an area situated between two Shia villages, Qmatieh and Kayfoun, to create a contiguous Shia area.

Update. Jumblatt's PSP in Choueifat, have, under orders from Jumblatt, handed over their weapons to Arslan's militia.

Update 2. You know Hizbullah has gone too far when even Arslan had to assure them that Mount Lebanon has always been on the side of the resistance, in a hint that they need not bomb it to oblivion. Arslan appealed to the "opposition" to cease hostilities. He said that Jumblatt had authorized him to coordinate the handover of all PSP weapons to the Lebanese army, and that he will call Suleiman to begin drawing a plan to ending hostilities.

Update 3. Pro-syrian dog Wiam Wahab: (Now Lebanon)

Wahab: there is coordination between opposition on what is taking place in al-jabal.
Wahab: We want to keep the al-jabal safe but the army has to act fast and the PSP have to hand all their weapons … I hope that Jounblat told Erslan that the PSP will give all their weapons and their offices or the fighting will continue
Wahab: many PSP offices fell under the control of the opposition… but many others giving up their offices peacefully.
Wahab: Lebanese Unification Movement, Democratic Party and Syrian Social Nationalist party are the ones fighting in al-jabal against PSP… no Hezbollah gunmen are involved in the fighting.

Update 4. Ceasefire at 6pm Beirut time.

Update 5. Citizen from deir koubel, a druze village, to LBC:

We have been calling the army to come to our village since yesterday, but they have ignored our call. Hizbullah is still bombarding us. Our village is burning, we don't have weapons or armed men here. We will not accept any other force in our village. Only the army. What are they (the army) waiting for?

An irreparable damage

Ascribing failure to March 14 at this time is not fair. To say they failed is to say they lost a military battle. They haven’t. The pro-March 14 government did not fail either. They may have, in their own way, backed down, transferring decision making to the Lebanese army, an unheard of measure in a country where the military should be following orders, not making up its own. But the battle for Lebanon is not over yet, although the chances of Lebanon recovering are diminishing.

I know many of you are angry at March 14 and Siniora. You have every right. I am too. They have blown many chances in the past. But in this past episode, something must be said about the decision to not fight back. Hizbullah feeds on violence, and Jumblatt especially, did not want them to have it. He did not want Shia blood on his hands, this I believe. It took him a long time to wash off Christian blood, and if this country is to continue being a nation for all its sects, March 14, a peaceful movement, cannot turn into Hizbullah. That's why there was something tragic about their turning to the state's army, which they knew could not protect them, but turned to it nevertheless because it is a state institution.

Let’s direct our anger at the right people. Hizbullah today, and Amal, stand responsible for stirring an unprecedented amount of hatred towards the Shia community, and widening the sectarian rift. And Michel Suleiman, who watched the masked criminals shoot people and sabotage the media, also stands responsible.

It doesn’t matter if this was a March 14 trap or not. It doesn't seem like one anymore. I don't think there are benefits from a trap that results in a sectarian rift. Hizbullah has made it extremely difficult for the country and for the Shia community to co-exist. This is the tragic consequence of their irresponsible and criminal behavior of the past 4 days. This might not be the end of it. Some people will not forget, or forgive. And Lebanon Shias will have tough times ahead of them. And so will the rest of the population, which now has little faith in the institution March 14, who trusted, whether out of helplessness, shrewdness or even stupidity: the Lebanese military.

I didn’t need to hear it from Samir Geagea today.  Suleiman should have the done the most basic thing—protect citizens and their properties. The fracture threat is bogus. It's either already divided or whole. No soldier in this army should desert if asked to protect a citizen. If so, then he does not belong in the army, funded by taxpayers. Hizbullah, and a good number of their followers, don’t even pay this army’s salaries.  Those who do deserved a better treatment. The army withdrew from the path of Hizbullah and Amal, watched them from a distance as they erected new borders inside the country and terrorized the population. This is unforgivable behavior.

The events of the last three days not only undermined the military institution, but may have convinced some in March 14 to regret their decision to support the candidacy of Suleiman for president (Even Siniora's address included hints that the army did not fulfill its responsibilities). Sadly, when you partake in circumventing the constitution, you cannot expect the state institutions to protect you, or protect the people.  When you expect a pro-Syrian appointee to act against the interests of his former masters, you can’t expect him to protect you. Geagea today stopped short of withdrawing his backing for him, hinting that he had never been enthusiastic about the army commander's candidacy.

The Kalam El Nass interviews with the Future News journalists said it all about the army and Hizbullah. An army officer acted as a messenger for Hizbullah, and accompanied them inside Future TV’s building to cut cables and shut down the station.

Those former colleagues of mine delivered the harshest verdict against the state’s only remaining functioning institution, and against the people they once helped. Future TV is not perfect. They lack a lot, as do other media in the country. But this partiucular station has done more for this “resistance” than any other station in Lebanon. The Hariri Foundation they attacked still funds the education and medical treatment of Qana survivors, and has taken the cause of Lebanese children victims of Israeli violence to the UN more than once.

Here is an excerpt from Sahar Khatib’s interview, a Future TV journalist who went out of her way to represent the point of view of the “opposition” on her show, as she should have, only to be rewarded with terror. 

An exit or a new start line

Siniora’s speech was probably his most anti-Hizbullah to date, and, by referring the matter to the army, pitted Hizbullah against the army, should the militia refuse to heed the call of the military institution.

Shortly after Siniora’s speech, the army command said it would keep the airport security chief in his post pending an investigation, and deal with Hizbullah’s communications network in a way that would preserve the public interest and Hizbullah’s security. The army also instructed soliders to spread the authority of the state and arrest violaters.

The army also called on “all parties” to withdraw fighters from the streets.

As I type this, LBC is reporting that the “opposition” accepted the call to end armed protests, however, it said it would not halt its “civil disobedience”, meaning the tents and occupation of downtown Beirut and likely the airport road would remain.

Hizbullah’s war against the state took another tragic turn this morning, when armed men affiliated with the militia fired at a funeral procession in Tariq Jdeedeh, killing several mourners. Fights broke out in Halba in the north between Future movement supporters and the SSNP, resulting in at least nine SSNP dead.

More details and analysis soon.

Obama: time to engage in diplomacy

Guess what time it is? It’s time for Obama’s “diplomatic efforts” to come save the day.

Hezbollah's power grab in Beirut has once more plunged that city into violence and chaos. This effort to undermine Lebanon's elected government needs to stop, and all those who have influence with Hezbollah must press them to stand down immediately. It's time to engage in diplomatic efforts to help build a new Lebanese consensus that focuses on electoral reform, an end to the current corrupt patronage system, and the development of the economy that provides for a fair distribution of services, opportunities and employment. We must support the implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions that reinforce Lebanon's sovereignty, especially resolution 1701 banning the provision of arms to Hezbollah, which is violated by Iran and Syria. As we push for this national consensus, we should continue to support the democratically elected government of Prime Minister Siniora, strengthen the Lebanese army, and insist on the disarming of Hezbollah before it drags Lebanon into another unnecessary war. As we do this, it is vital that the United States continues to work with the international community and the private sector to rebuild Lebanon and get its economy back on its feet.

Oh the time we wasted by fighting Hizbullah all those years with rockets, invasions of their homes and shutting down their media outlets. If only we had engaged them and their masters in diplomacy, instead of just sitting with them around discussion tables, welcoming them into our parliament, and letting them veto cabinet decisions. If only Obama had shared his wisdom with us before, back when he was rallying with some of our former friends at pro-Palestinian rallies in Chicago. How stupid we were when, instead of developing national consensus with them, we organized media campaigns against Israel on behalf of the impoverished people who voted for them.

During that time when we bought into the cause against Israel, treating resistance fighters like our brothers, we really should have been building consensus with them. Because what we did back in 1982, 1993, 1996, 2000 and 2006 – all that was plain betrayal and unnecessary antagonism, a product of a corrupt patronage system and unfair distribution of wealth.

We stand today regretting the wasted time that could have been wisely spent talking to them, to the Syrian occupiers who brought them into our system, and the Iranian revolutionary guards who trained them.

Yes, this is change we believe in. Get me a time machine.

Hizbullah's honeymoon will be short lived

Citing Saudi and international sources, LBC correspondent Raghida Dergham said that those enjoying themselves right now in Beirut had better think well and hard about the regional reactions. She mentioned possible unilateral actions by some states against those actors and their sponsors to end their attempt to take over Lebanon.

Things now seem to hinge on Saudi, Egyptian, US and French reactions to the events.

Dergham said that even Russia will not be able to oppose retaliatory actions to redress the situation in Lebanon.

In related news, it appears that the US is currently deliberating with security council members on response measures.

Is this what March 14 was banking on? Did Hizbullah walk into a trap? And does this explain why they seem to be in a hurry to create facts on the ground before they are forced to return to their holes?

We'll see.

Hizbullah's resistance in action

March 14: no compromise, army must protect citizens

Samir Geagea delivered the March 14 statement after a long meeting.  Two main points to be highlighted: Hizbullah's weapons lost whatever legitimacy they may have had (Samir Geagea nearly said "gotcha"), and the army must carry out its duty to protect citizens and their property. The statement described Hizbullah's actions as a military coup, and said they will soon come to realize the extent of their actions.

March 14 also called on Arab states and the international community to halt the return of Syria to Lebanon, and the advancement of Iran to the Mediterranean.

Geagea said there will no compromise. March 14 will persevere and "will not be terrorized".

Now Lebanon has a rough translation here.  A few excerpts in Arabic here.

Update. I realize you might not be able to access those links. Here are the excerpts in Arabic.

جعجع: بيروت اجتاحتها جحافل "حزب الله" لكنها لن تستلسم.
جعجع: انه انقلاب على الوحدة الوطنية والدستور.
جعجع: بيروت ضربت بالاسلحة المرسلة من طهران عبر دمشق.
جعجع: تحية الى سعد الحريري ابن رفيق الحريري الذي ظنوا ان باغتياله يغتالون لبنان، وتحية الى وليد جنبلاط الذي قاوم المخرز السوري.
جعجع: هذا الانقلاب لن يشكل رادعا لنا بل حافزا لتكريس سيادة لبنان.
جعجع: ما نفذه "حزب الله" هو انقلاب على العيش المشترك والقرارات الدولية، وهذه المحاولة الانقلابية اسقطت نهائيا شرعية سلاح "حزب الله"، ولن تجدي مقولة ان السلاح يستعمل لحماية السلاح.
جعجع: استعمال السلاح ضد اللبنانيين لن يصنع اي انتصار.
جعجع: ان قيادة الجيش اللبناني الى الاضطلاع بواجباتها في حماية المواطنين ووضع حد لحالة الاتفلات والعنف.
جعجع: تتوجه قوى 14 آذار الى كل الدول العربية لان الانقلاب الذي ينفذ هدفه ارجاع سوريا الى لبنان وايصال ايران الى المتوسط.
جعجع: على المجتمع الدولي الضغط على الدول التي تمرر السلاح.
جعجع: نؤكد تمسكنا بالمبادىء التي قامت عليها ثورة الارز، ونؤكد ان اعمال العنف لا ترهبنا، وقوى 14 آذار تؤكد وقوفها مع حكومة الرئيس السنيورة.

The dark age of Hizbullah is upon us

Hariri's Future TV is off the air after being threatened by the Hizbullah militia. Hizbullah is in control of much of West Beirut, spreading a reign of terror.

Hariri and Jumblatt are being surrounded by the Hizbullah orcs, who also set fire to the al-Mustaqbal newspaper building.

Hizbullah has also occupied the headquarters of Ali al-Amin, the Tyre Mufti who is against Hizbullah.

Aoun is gloating. He thinks it's a coup that will deliver him the presidency.

13:10 عون: هذه الاحداث اعادت القاطرة الى السكة الصحيحة وسنعود الى حياتنا الطبيعية وطرقاتنا ستكون امنة وسننظر الى الماضي القريب لنعرف ما هي الجرائم التي ارتكبت واضمن للجميع بألا يتعرض احد لاضطهاد باستثناء المسؤولين الذين شذوا عن صلاحياتهم

13:05 العماد عون: اليوم هو انتصار للبنان بالعودة الى الميثاق الوطني واعادة التوازن الى مكونات الشعب اللبناني الذي كان مفقوداّ

13:03 حركة امل تدعو المواطنين في الوتوات والظريف للعودة الى مواطنهم

13:02 ال بي سي: عناصر من امل وحزب الله احتلوا دار الافتاء الجعفري في صور حيث مكتب السيد علي الامين

13:00 جنبلاط لـ"العربية": حزب الله" يملي ارادته على الدولة واجتياحه لبيروت فشل في السياسة وانا باق في بيروت ولن اخرج من بيتي واتفقت انا والحريري على تسليم كل مكاتبنا في بيروت للجيش وتعليماتي للحزبيين ان حمايتنا بواسطة الجيش واقول لنصرالله لا نقبل بحرب الالغاء واتمنى على بري ان يخرج البلاد من هذا المأزق

Saudi Arabia has called for an emergency Arab League meeting.

The rest of the world watches as Iran's proxies occupy Beirut.

Bassita, as they say. This is not over. Hizbullah will not win.

Update. Syrian regime lackey is trying to move the conflict to the Chouf, threatening to occupy Jumblatt's PSP offices. Jumblatt, meanwhile, is still in his Beirut residence, protected by the  army and ISF.  Gunshots are being heard in the area, and pro-Syrian SSNP militia members were seen near his residence.

Update 2. The Future TV building in Raouche was burned down by SSNP thugs. 

Update 3. March 14 MP Musbah Ahdab: if the Lebanese army does not intervene to protect Tripoli, because of alleged fear of division, then there are officers in the army who will not accept that their institution does not intervene to protect Tripoli and other [Sunni] areas.

Update 4. The Lebanese army is watching these violations, and chasing pro-March 14 gunmen, and allowing Hizbullah to do whatever they want. Meanwhile, Berri's NBN is reporting that Siniora will resign tonight. Jumblatt however told New TV that the government's resignation is out of the question.

Update 5. March 14 strategy so far: hand over everything to Lebanese army.

Can Hizbullah win the battle?

This is unconfirmed, but it looks like Hizbullah's fighters are gaining control of much of the city, and surrounding the residences of some March 14 leaders. Their push towards the city and into downtown Beirut might be a prelude to storming the government Serail. Lebanonfiles.com reported that most of the ministers have already left the government building.

So Hizbullah takes over the capital, then what? The rest of the country? Hizbullah has spent much of the last year farming militias in other areas. Are "East Beirut" and Mount Lebanon next? Anybody who knows the history of the Lebanese civil war knows how impossible it is to win in those places.

So what are their long-term options here? So far, it looks like a stupid show of power. No wonder Jumblatt in his interview today didn't express the need to even fight Nasrallah.

Nasrallah's "resistance" is dead. He walked into the civil war trap. What's left is a bunch of heavily armed people in makeshift tents, taking it out on defenseless civilians. You cannot force the rest of the population to join your eternal fight, or vote for you and your allies in the next election. If you look at the map Jeha published on his site, you'll see how Hizbullah and Amal have been attacking Sunni areas, trying to cleanse mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhood, perhaps clearing a path to downtown Beirut. What will this create? Unity around Hizbullah? Or public anger that has to blow up in their faces, whether today or tomorrow?

Aoun will not save Nasrallah. Nor will his friends in the pro-Syrian camp, or even the poor people who went to Barbir on Wednesday thinking there would be a strike, to find out that the union bosses hadn't bothered to show up, and were replaced by thugs burning tires. Nasrallah didn't even mention their plight in his declaration of war against the state.

Lebanon is an easy target for a militia Hizbullah's size. It won't fight back, except through a few gunmen and leaders with no imagination or might to fight back. The Lebanese army, you say. Rumor on the street says that the army commander said he would refuse to implement a state of emergency. There is no army that can stand against Hizbullah, whether we like to admit this or not. Not because there aren't good men in the army. But because the institution is also governed by the same delicate fabric that makes up the country, and that Hizbullah has been messing with for years. The Shia council, which they hijacked after Shamseddine's death, was used to create a Shia cover.  The anti-Hizbullah Shia voices have been systematically marginalized by the party.

But at the end of the day, there is no divine victory for Nasrallah, even if Beirut falls. You cannot win a war against your own people in the name of resisting an enemy outside your border.

Hizbullah has already lost the battle, even if they win this episode. As for our families, may God protect them.

Jumblatt calls for an end to bloodshed

In an interview with LBC,  Jumblatt called on Nasrallah to demarcate the borders between his resistance and the state, to avoid bloody conflicts. He said that if there is failure to adopt a defense strategy that would absorb the resistance, then perhaps they could temporarily coexist with the "resistance" to prevent bloodshed, as long as they are clear on what Nasrallah considers to be an infringement on his security.

"I will not respond to Nasrallah, out of respect for his turban. They called me a third and killer before. I will not respond to those kids. This is a characteristic of totalitarian parties, you are either under their command or a traitor," he said, asking  "is Wafiq Choukair worth all this?"

Jumblatt said he will remain in contact with Nabih Berri, whom he called today to relay Hariri's proposal.

He said he ordered his supporters not to engage in street fights.  "Only the state can protect us," he said.

"If he wants to occupy Beirut, he can, but then what? what kind of accomplishment is that?"

"We're confused. They say it's an illegal government, but also want it to revoke its decisions," he said.

He defended the decisions and said they were not meant to target the weapons of the resistance. "We said the issue of weapons will be dealt with through internal dialogue. But we cannot allow the weapons issue to encompass every detail of Lebanese daily life."

"Hizbullah, not the Shias are responsible for what is happening," he said.

Responding to a question on why the army does not act to remove Hizbullah from the airport road, Jumblatt refused to comment on what he said was a sensitive issue, and said he understood the army's decision.

Hariri's proposal

Saad Hariri described what is happening as an "act of folly" and a declaration of the "bankruptcy" of the "group that claims to be a resistance movement".

"What are the resistance fighters doing on the streets of Beirut?", Hariri addressed Nasrallah, warning him that the fitna between Sunnis and Shias is upon us. He urged him to end the descent into civil war by lifting the siege of Beirut and withdrawing his fighters.

Hariri denied that the government decisions to dismiss the airport security chief and dismantle Hizbullah's communications network were targeting the weapons of the resistance, or were, as Nasrallah claimed, an attempt to hand the airport to the CIA and FBI.

He reminded him that Hizbullah arrested a French official for holding a camera, so how can he consider the issue of cameras spying on the airport a silly matter?

He said the government decisions are to protect the state, not to go after the resistance.

He said preventing a fitna between Sunnis and Shias is "more important than all weapons".

Hariri proposed the following to end the fighting:

Put the government decisions at the disposal of the Lebanese army
Withdraw all fighters from the streets, and re-open the roads
Elect Michel Suleiman as President
Start dialogue, with Suleiman presiding

Hariri said rejection of this is a an assault on our people and citizens.

As I type these words, a full fledged civil war has erupted in Ras El Nabe'. There are reports of Hizbullah fighters storming buildings and evicting citizens.

Hizbullah vs the state: Lebanese army withdraws. How can we help?

According to Aljazeera, the Lebanese army is withdrawing troops from scenes of the clashes.

The army command earlier warned that that the current clashes will affect the unity of the army.

The Army Command called on all Lebanese citizens to exercise their wisdom and utmost caution at all levels. The absence of a popular sense of national responsibility limited the ability of the army to play a role in restoring Lebanon’s unity, the command continued.

The Orientation Directorate said the abandonment of dialogue was a clear departure from the formula of coexistence and created an atmosphere conducive to violence and confrontation. Popular discord also undermined the unity of the military establishment, it added.

Saad Hariri is expected to hold a press conference at 8pm Beirut time. 

No time for analysis. This is a war between the state and Hizbullah. There can be one winner.

When Israel attacked Lebanon, some of us pitched in to help the state. Our country is now being attacked by the Hizbullah terrorist organisation. If anyone has any ideas on how we, especially the ones residing abroad, can help win this fight, please speak now.